I PROMISE TO SHUT UP for a while about taxes, after next Monday's post, which will complete the series on how to eliminate the deficit.
There are other important issues in the world—Christmas, spirituality, Wikileaks, how we think about morality, etc.
But the tax issue is important—more important than most Americans realize.
So today, just before finishing up that series, I'm taking the time to make clear what the Republicans, with an assist from the President, just did to the deficit, the economy, and the American Dream.
I'll use a little help from the New York Times.
If you click [here], you will see the budget choices I outlined in the first post in the series, and have been explaining ever since.
And, then, if you click [here], you will see the same set of choices, only modified by the biggest parts of the deal which just passed Congress.
Oh. Sorry—you can't click there, because the Times site only provides a link if you make choices which eliminate the deficit, and with the changes that just passed into law the deficit is back.
So here's the problem: where do we find the additional 200 billion that just got added to the deficit?
And let's be clear—as ticked as I am at Obama for enabling Republicans on this, the additional deficit is due to Republican agendas.
They have now forfeited the right to scream about the deficit.
Not that that will stop them.
But I want you to be able to click on a link, so let's make some choices about that 200 Billion.
And, while we're at it, let's make the choices that actually might be able to pass, given a Republican majority in the House.
But first, we need to adjust that deficit some more, because the deal that just passed makes some of my other choices very unlikely to happen.
We can add to the two hundred billion dollar deficit just created by the tax deal the following:
- $103 billion which would have come from a bank tax.
Can you see Republicans passing that? - $71 billion which would have come from a carbon tax.
They don't even "believe in" climate change. - $54 billion from reducing the mortgage reduction for high-income households.
- $95 billion which would have come from a higher tax rate on people making more than a million dollars a year.
- $100 billion which would have come from raising the cap on payroll taxes.
- $46 billion which would have come from returning the investment tax rate to Clinton era levels
All of these are things the Republican's oppose, and there's no reason to believe that they will pass them with a majority in the house, considering the deal they just cut while they were in the minority.
So, that leaves us with a shortfall of $664 billion by 2030, and $94 billion by 2015.
Where is it going to come from?
What Republicans will agree to (mostly because it's what they want already):
- $14 billion to eliminate earmarks.
This probably won't do any harm. - $17 billion to cut the pay of federal workers by 5%.
This will hurt the economy, and all of us.
Meanwhile it's grossly unfair that your postman, or the clerk behind the counter, or the person who inspects your meat, should have to take a pay cut so that a billionaire can get a tax break which he won't even notice. - $15 billion to reduce the federal workforce by 10%.
So you'll be waiting in longer lines every time you go into a government office, and you won't be quite as sure that your food is safe, but large corporations won't have to worry so much about being caught doing illegal and immoral stuff—like the stuff that led to the recession we're in now.
But that's okay, their taxes will be lower.
And, of course, those jobs being phased out are going to increase unemployment, which will make for a "lower cost of labor" (meaning you can say goodbye to that raise, since your company knows you have nowhere to go.) - $17 billion to cut 250,000 government contractors.
There goes the country's infrastructure, another chunk of jobs, and another blow to the economy. - $30 billion more to cut research for fossil fuels, funds for the Smithsonian and the National Parks, and eliminating the Office of Safe and Drug-Free Schools.
Only middle-class kids go to public schools.
We don't really need to make them safe or drug-free.
And if you can't get into a national park for your vacation, just go to Europe. - $42 billion to cut aid to states for education, poverty programs, and public safety.
So your state will have less to spend in those areas, and more jobs will go away at the same time. - $51 billion to reduce non-combatant military compensation.
Things like cutting medical insurance for veterans and housing allowances for the military. - $56 billion to increase Medicare eligibility to 70.
- $157 billion to reduce the tax break for employers who provide health insurance.
Hey—the workers aren't going anywhere: see those unemployment lines? - $247 billion to raise the Social Security retirement age to 70.
That's a conservative estimate (no pun intended), and you can look at it here.
I haven't even allowed for the fact that Republicans aren't likely to go along with the cuts I proposed to downsize our military (and the dreams they have of empire).
That's another $349 billion which will have to come out of Social security or Medicare or our government's ability to enforce the laws, provide highways and clean water and safe food, stop Wall Street from destroying the economy, and do the research and development that has fed that economy for the last century.
Or it can be made up by steeper taxes on the middle class.
The American Dream is in intensive care.
We shouldn't give up hope.
Nothing is set in stone.
But we can't afford to be complaisant, either.
That's what I think today.
