THE DEBATE IS TONIGHT, and I'm expecting that McCain will do something dramatic.
I don't pretend to be able to predict what, but I'll share my best guess at the end of this post.
First, here's why I expect a dramatic move:
- It's a pattern that his campaign has been repeating for some time. This isn't news, almost everyone has already mentioned it except me. Every time he isn't doing so well in the polls or he or Palin do or say something that gets them into trouble, he makes some dramatic, unexpected, move in order to distract everyone from the problem and reset the clock.
The polls don't look so good right now, but that's not the only reason. There are other things McCain would like us to forget. - Obama just called his bluff over the debates, and won. McCain said he would not be there, unless there was a deal, because he had to run to Washington to save the country.
Obama replied that the American public had a right to hear the candidates debate during this time of crisis, that presidents had to be able to do more than one thing at a time, and that he was planning to go on with the debate as scheduled.
There is no deal, and McCain will be at the debate. He'll want to distract us from that very obvious fact. - Bush stepped in to make McCain's grandstand look good by asking Obama to come to Washington as well. McCain apparently did nothing at that meeting, though Obama appears to have conducted himself like a president there.
McCain did, however, rush around generally meddling in a process that was approaching conclusion, and may have been part of the reason it derailed. (Talk about biting the hand that feeds you.)
So his insistence on intervening was, at best, a failure, and only served to highlight Obama's skills. He will want to distract us from that. - Bush's attempt to lend him a hand only emphasized his biggest problem: his need to separate himself from Bush.
He'll want to distract us from that. - He has spent the entire period of the financial crisis arguing that Obama doesn't have a plan, while bringing forth nothing of substance himself.
And he's made things worse by switching positions every five seconds.
He'll want to distract us from that.
So I will be very surprised if he doesn't come up with yet another surprise.
What will it be? I don't really have a clue, but I harbor a wild guess that he will say he's completely against the current financial deal.
Think of the political advantages:
- The polls show that many Americans are currently questioning the deal. He can position himself as their spokesperson and pick up a few votes.
- The economy is, by his own admission, his weak spot. What better way to deal with this than to make the biggest economic move of his campaign on the night they're supposed to be debating foreign policy, his strong suit.
If Obama turns out to be better on foreign policy than McCain in the debate, no one will notice because they'll be distracted by the surprise move on economics. - It would distract everyone from the fact that he caved to Obama on the debate. He could even claim that he decided to come in order to make his case against the deal to the American people.
- It's a way to save face over the recent fiasco of his trip to Washington. He changes the subject from the damage he did to the deal to his opposition of it.
- It's a way to make it look like he actually holds a position on the subject.
- It's a way to separate himself from George Bush politically.
Sure, the voters might see through it, but, hey, there's always tomorrow and another subject...
The more I consider the move, the more convinced I become that if he doesn't do it, it will only be because Rove didn't think of it.
PS: (The morning after the debate.) I guess Rove didn't think of it.
Seriously, though, I suspect my timing was just wrong. If McCain continues to fall in the polls, I still think he'll pull another stunt. And even though he seemed to support the current negotiations in this debate, I won't be surprised if he eventually comes out against them. It's got to be tempting to him politically, and McCain is first and foremost a politician of the old boy school—right down to pretending not to be.
At least, that's what I think today.
